{"id":1773,"date":"2017-01-18T20:06:07","date_gmt":"2017-01-18T20:06:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/?p=1773"},"modified":"2022-05-25T17:54:35","modified_gmt":"2022-05-25T17:54:35","slug":"two-digital-revolutions-disruption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/two-digital-revolutions-disruption\/","title":{"rendered":"Revolutions Always Come In Twos"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Every industry that runs headlong into the digital age will go through two separate&nbsp;and very distinct revolutions. It\u2019s easy to confuse the two, or\u2014more likely\u2014to be unaware that a second revolution is in the offing. It&#8217;s also tempting to label&nbsp;the first revolution &#8220;disruptive&#8221; when real disruption usually rides&nbsp;in on the second&nbsp;wave.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"p2\"><span class=\"s1\">Revolution 1: Digitized<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In the first revolution, your industry becomes <i>digitized<\/i>. The tools of the trade shift from the World Of Atoms to the World Of Bits. Typewriters, printing presses, magnetic tape, cameras with claws and physical&nbsp;shutters: everything migrates&nbsp;to circuitry. Mechanical engineers give way to electrical engineers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">It is tempting to conflate this this&nbsp;first wave of digital transformation with &#8220;disruption.&#8221; At&nbsp;this point, that term is&nbsp;typically invoked by the very people who already work in the industry. And small wonder: their workaday lives have, in fact, been disrupted. They are forced to re-orient.&nbsp;They must learn new skills, or at very least memorize some new acronyms. The transition can be painful and last years. Many&nbsp;will find their skill sets obsoleted and their careers in jeopardy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">But while individual workers\u2019 routines have been \u201cdisrupted\u201d at this stage, the industry at large has not. The old&nbsp;power structures remain intact; the same BigCos dominate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In fact, it turns out that those incumbent firms are often <em>the primary beneficiaries<\/em> of the first digital revolution. Brand new technology is expensive to purchase, deploy, and support. This lends&nbsp;deep-pocked incumbents a strong, if short-lived, advantage.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"p2\"><span class=\"s1\">Revolution 2: Distributed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In the second revolution, your industry becomes <i>distributed<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Now you are joining the networked world. Human beings, organizations, apps&nbsp;and other snippets of code: every&nbsp;individual node can now see every other node in the system, and interact with little or no friction. Network effects kick in. Electrical engineers give way to software engineers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">At this stage, we already take for granted that all activity is being executed&nbsp;through digital tools and platforms. In fact, a whole generation of \u201cdigital natives\u201d may have come of age between the first and second revolutions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">This is&nbsp;<strong>capital-D Disruption.<\/strong>&nbsp;The first revolution merely&nbsp;let OldCos&nbsp;do \u201cthe same thing, only better.\u201d&nbsp;But an industry that has morphed&nbsp;into a massively distributed system will give rise to entirely new products, new production modes, and new business models. The prime example here is today&#8217;s&nbsp;software industry:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">SaaS products are replacing boxed, on-premise software.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Waterfall production has given way to Lean, Agile, and other iterative production modes.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Subscription licensing&nbsp;is&nbsp;winning out&nbsp;over&nbsp;one-off and&nbsp;node-locked licensing schemes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">When an industry becomes fully distributed,&nbsp;software starts to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">eat<\/a> that industry in earnest. And this is where the internet, which enables the&nbsp;second revolution, can become an <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@EskoKilpi\/movement-of-thought-that-led-to-airbnb-and-uber-9d4da5e3da3a#.xuqafpvqg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">extinction-level event<\/a> for the venerable old&nbsp;guard.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Three Network Models<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The word \u201cdistribution\u201d has a special meaning in media: it refers to&nbsp;sales, marketing, and exhibition. But when discussing&nbsp;large systems and networks, the term &#8220;distributed&#8221; means something else entirely. The following illustration clarifies:<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1777\" style=\"width: 719px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1777\" class=\"wp-image-1777 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed.png\" alt=\"3 different network models: Centralised, Decentralised, and Distributed\" width=\"709\" height=\"195\" srcset=\"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed.png 709w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed-200x55.png 200w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed-300x83.png 300w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed-680x187.png 680w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed-400x110.png 400w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Centralised-decentralised-distributed-50x14.png 50w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 709px) 100vw, 709px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1777\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span class=\"image-attribution\"> Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/User:1983~enwiki\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">1983~enwiki<\/a> at <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Distributed_economy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">English Wikipedia<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The shifts engendered by the <em>Two Revolutions<\/em> can be explained broadly&nbsp;in terms of these three network models.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We can think of the first revolution as one that&nbsp;moves us from a heavily <strong>centralized<\/strong> model to a more <strong>decentralized<\/strong> one. Old physical and geographic limitations don\u2019t disappear completely, but they start&nbsp;to erode. That is roughly where film and video production finds itself today. Sure, it\u2019s easier to move around large media files.&nbsp;But if we graph an entire production, we will still find&nbsp;activity clustered around a few major hubs: production office, studio, on set, and key post production facilities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We can think of the second revolution as moving us from the <strong>decentralized<\/strong> model to a fully <strong>distributed<\/strong> one. In this reality, every node on the network can communicate with every other node&nbsp;with equal ease.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">And that is where things start to get interesting.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"p2\"><span class=\"s1\">Emergent Properties<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">While this article was sitting in my drafts folder, analyst Ben Thompson <span class=\"s2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/stratechery.com\/2016\/the-it-era-and-the-internet-revolution\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">published an essay<\/a>&nbsp;with<\/span> a very similar argument. (I\u2019m calling Simultaneous Invention.)&nbsp;Thompson refers to these two waves as&nbsp;\u201cIT Era\u201d (<em>digitized<\/em>) and \u201cInternet Revolution\u201d (<em>distributed<\/em>).&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">He&nbsp;notes that&nbsp;as journalism started&nbsp;its first digital revolution, industry revenue continued to&nbsp;grow even while newsroom employment entered a secular decline. That makes sense: the impetus behind \u201ccomputerization\u201d and \u201cIT departments\u201d is to make old processes more efficient. Same things, only better.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">But the first revolution, while appearing in the sheep\u2019s clothing of \u201cgreater efficiency\u201d to OldCos, in fact&nbsp;sows the seeds of their destruction. That first digital revolution lays down the protocols and substrates upon which the second revolution will eventually play out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That second revolution is what Shakespeare (or if you prefer,&nbsp;<em>Star Trek VI<\/em>) aptly dubbed The&nbsp;Undiscovered&nbsp;Country. While it is possible to see the second revolution coming\u2014and this blog is, in no small part, dedicated to just that\u2014it&nbsp;is all but impossible to predict its exact nature.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That is because complex systems have unpredictable <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wgbh\/nova\/sciencenow\/3410\/03-ever-nf.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">emergent properties<\/a>. To wit:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We can\u2019t describe the behavior of oceans by observing a single H<sub>2<\/sub>O molecule.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We don\u2019t know much about the human brain from&nbsp;examining only one&nbsp;neuron.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">And no one could have looked at the TCP\/IP protocol or&nbsp;HTML5 and walked away knowing that&nbsp;Twitter, Reddit, trolling, or cat memes were around the corner.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is where true disruption&nbsp;lies. The first digital revolution is disruptive (meaning inconvenient) to our personal day-to-day. But the second revolution disrupts the entire industry landscape. It lays&nbsp;waste to many&nbsp;previously unassailable&nbsp;firms. And it gives rise to new&nbsp;organizations that would&nbsp;prove very difficult to describe to a time traveler from just 10 or 20 years ago.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Didn&#39;t exist in 2003:<\/p>\n<p>Facebook<br \/>Twitter<br \/>iPhone<br \/>iPad<br \/>Kindle<br \/>Uber<br \/>Airbnb<br \/>Android<br \/>Oculus<br \/>Spotify<br \/>Nest<br \/>Square<br \/>Instagram<br \/>Snapchat<br \/>WhatsApp <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/WEF17?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#WEF17<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ValaAfshar\/status\/821717711084457984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 18, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">&#8220;Digital&#8221; Has To Disappear<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">Last year I asked&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/film-not-disrupted-yet-part-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">why film has not been disrupted yet.<\/a>&nbsp;I offered five reasons, ranging from technological to&nbsp;cultural&nbsp;ones.<\/p>\n<p>But perhaps the <em>Two Revolutions<\/em> framework offers&nbsp;the simplest answer yet\u2014along with an accidental postscript to that series: <strong>the film industry&nbsp;has not been disrupted yet because we are only&nbsp;now on the tail end of the first revolution.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How do we know this?<\/p>\n<p>When a new technology has been fully absorbed, it tends to disappear from our language. For example, we don&#8217;t speak of &#8220;computerized accounting&#8221; or of &#8220;steel ships&#8221;. It is understood that we longer use paper ledger or (for the most part) build wooden boats. Words like &#8220;steel&#8221;, &#8220;computerize&#8221;, or &#8220;digital&#8221;&nbsp;recede into the background once they are&nbsp;matter of course.<\/p>\n<p>Benedict Evans of a16z perfectly&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/ben-evans.com\/benedictevans\/2014\/10\/28\/presentation-mobile-is-eating-the-world\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">illustrates<\/a>&nbsp;this phenomenon:<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"postcontents full\">\n<div id=\"attachment_1785\" style=\"width: 2058px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1785\" class=\"wp-image-1785 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software.png\" alt=\"steel-computerized-software\" width=\"2048\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software.png 2048w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-200x37.png 200w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-300x55.png 300w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-768x141.png 768w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-1024x188.png 1024w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-1680x308.png 1680w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-1240x227.png 1240w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-860x157.png 860w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-680x125.png 680w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-400x73.png 400w, http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/steel-computerized-software-50x9.png 50w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1785\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><a href=\"http:\/\/ben-evans.com\/benedictevans\/2014\/10\/28\/presentation-mobile-is-eating-the-world\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Benedict Evans<\/a>\/a16z<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"postcontents wrapper\">\n<p>But today we&nbsp;still talk about&nbsp;&#8220;digital filmmaking&#8221;&nbsp;and&nbsp;debate&nbsp;&#8220;film versus digital.&#8221; More productions are&nbsp;shooting on RED and&nbsp;Alexa&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/stephenfollows.com\/film-vs-digital\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">by now<\/a>\u2014but that mere fact&nbsp;is&nbsp;still considered food for thought. We debate it on panels. We write <a href=\"https:\/\/storify.com\/tvaziri\/steve-yedlin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">long essays<\/a> about it. Digital is not quite tautological,&nbsp;yet.<\/p>\n<p>Our&nbsp;first revolution may be nearly complete\u2014but only&nbsp;just.<\/p>\n<p>The&nbsp;key takeaway for filmmakers&nbsp;today&nbsp;is that we are not heading toward the next&nbsp;plateau of stability. We are not shaking out the last a few digital workflow kinks before landing on&nbsp;a new normal. I know that people yearn for this. The&nbsp;changes of&nbsp;the last 10-15 years have only&nbsp;set the stage for what will emerge next: new products; new production modes; new business models.&nbsp;And&nbsp;those will almost certainly look&nbsp;nothing like we imagine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Digital transformation comes not in one, but in two distinct waves. The film industry is just now at the tail end of its first revolution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1824,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[17],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1773"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1773"}],"version-history":[{"count":34,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3266,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1773\/revisions\/3266"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/endcrawl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}